If the Kremlin decides to mobilize more troops to fight in Ukraine, conscripts can get their notices by doing routine things like registering their car.
Under a new law signed by President Vladimir Putin last month, would-be recruits can be called through the popular government service network that most Russians use to obtain their most basic documents, from driver’s licenses to death certificates.
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Russia is integrating its conscription with its digitized, pervasive bureaucracy. That could make new mobilizations for his war in Ukraine more effective, and much harder to avoid.
Some observers see the advent of a “digital gulag” where every element of life will be monitored, recorded and, if necessary, punished. Many fear that the rush to implement the new system portends another wave of mobilization to come.
The government denies any intention to start a new mobilization for the Ukrainian war. However, the permanent institutionalization of a modern, highly efficient database of data on Russian men of military age speaks to a new official attitude that Russia must prepare for a long-term confrontation with the West.
“We are approaching the state of digital authoritarianism, total control all around. With this new project system, we are almost there,” says Andrei Kolesnikov, an expert at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center. “You can easily see the broader applications beyond the draft. The sphere of personal life is shrinking.”
In Russia, it used to be that in order to be drafted into military service, an eligible recruit had to be personally served with a summons. No more.
Under the new law, which swept through the State Duma with little publicity and was signed into law by President Vladimir Putin last month, potential recruits can be invited through the popular Gosuslugi network, the highly digitized state services bureaucracy that most Russians use to obtain basic documents. for. driving licenses to death certificates.
Some observers see the coming of a 1984-like total surveillance society, a “digital gulag” where every element of life will be monitored, recorded, indexed and, if necessary, punished. Focusing on the military implications, many fear that the rush to introduce the new system foreshadows another wave of mobilization, perhaps as early as September.
Why did we write this?
A story that is focused
Russia is integrating its conscription with its digitized, pervasive bureaucracy. That could make new mobilizations for his war in Ukraine more effective, and much harder to avoid.
The government denies any intention to start a new mobilization of manpower for the war in Ukraine. However, the permanent institutionalization of a modern, highly efficient database of some 25 million Russian men of military age who can be drafted speaks to a new official attitude that Russia must prepare for a long-term confrontation with the West; the current conflict in Ukraine is likely to last.
“We are approaching the state of digital authoritarianism, total control all around. With this new project system, we are almost there,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, an expert at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center who is still based in Moscow. “Potential conscripts now have to fear cameras on the subway or going to the doctor or almost any public activity. You can easily see the wider applications, outside of the draft. The sphere of personal life is shrinking. …Putin and his elites are preparing people for a longer and wider war. They don’t hide this.”
Refine the system?
The ground-breaking effort to digitize military lists was spurred by a frenzy involving the announcement last September of the partial mobilization of 300,000 men to bolster Russian troop ranks in Ukraine after a series of military setbacks last summer.
Russia had not carried out such a mobilization in more than 40 years, and the indiscriminate methods of the bureaucrats trying to carry out the order caused social panic. Hundreds of thousands of military-age men left the country, though many have since returned. Large numbers of people who were not even eligible for the limited mobilization outlined by the Kremlin were recruited by military recruiters, disrupting their lives. Although many of them were later released by the courts, the social scars remain.
Even some anti-war activists say the digital draft system is a rational step that would limit the social trauma of conscription and mobilization by clearly identifying those who are eligible for the draft and allowing the rest to breathe easy.
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“This law would be fine if it weren’t for the war,” said Vadim, an adviser to Russia’s Conscientious Objectors movement, who did not want to use his last name. “There were disturbances in the military registration, and now the state is establishing order, albeit harshly and by force.”
He compares it to paying taxes. The rights and responsibilities of the citizen should be clearly defined, as well as the penalties for disobedience. In the military context, the legislation of the Russian Federation provides for the right of a citizen to undergo alternative service instead of being drafted into the army. If that right were codified and respected, it would clarify every citizen’s choice, he says.
Last year, more than 1,000 men in Russia were prosecuted for draft evasion, far more than the previous year. But Vadim says that none of the conscientious objectors his movement supports have so far been punished by the authorities.
“For us, we are not opposed to the system in principle, although it seems monstrous against the background of the war. We will follow it to see how it will be implemented in practice,” he says. “That’s what matters.”
No more dodging
The new system aims to reduce draft evasion by identifying and tracing the individual through various high-tech means. It will track potential recruits by integrating with all existing government and law enforcement systems, including medical records, tax records and street cameras with facial recognition.
Once the draft notification is issued through the Gosuslugi network, it will be the responsibility of the recruit to report within 20 days. Anyone who fails to appear will be banned from leaving the country and barred from using almost all government services. They will even be banned from driving.
Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, says it’s simply a long-overdue upgrade of an outdated system.
“The unplanned mobilization in September of last year led to many well-known problems, many of which were completely avoidable,” he says. “So Putin has given orders to rebuild that old system, which was last updated in the 1960s, and adapt it to the coming decades. This should work not only to simplify description and possible mobilization, but for a number of other things, such as natural disasters. … You can call it a “digital gulag” all you want, but in a few years it will be everywhere. Every viable society is going to do this. It’s everyone’s database. It improves the delivery of public services for all purposes.”
Mr. Markov denies that the rush to introduce the new project system indicates that a new wave of mobilization is expected. He says the Kremlin has decided to rely on volunteers to fill the ranks for now. It recently launched a massive new ad campaign aimed at getting young men to sign up.
The softer approach to manpower augmentation may be due to sensitivity to public opinion, which may not be as firmly behind the war as opinion polls suggest. Mr. Kolesnikov notes that the presidential elections are scheduled for 2024, and Mr. Putin may want to see some sort of conclusion to the war before then.
“Society may be burdened by the actions of the authorities, although it is difficult to predict the tipping point,” said Mr. Kolesnikov says: “Putin is preparing for elections. Perhaps he is not ready to repeat the mistakes of the past. Maybe there will be a mobilization, but not as openly as before.”
But the “digital project” is set very quickly. Mr. Markov says that this is the case if Russia fails on the Ukrainian battlefield in the next few months. If not, the system will become a permanent fixture of Russian life, serving the state in any future emergency.
“These are preparations for living in a dangerous world,” he says. “Everyone is talking about the Ukrainian attack. If they succeed, Russia’s response will be total mobilization, and this is part of that short-term calculation. Otherwise, we know that Russia will be in confrontation with the West for many years to come, so we have to start preparing for it.”